We further reveal that China's current stimulus package in 2021-2025 is consistent with China's emission intensity-reduction goals for 2025, but further efforts are required to meet China's carbon emissions-peaking target in 2030 and Cancun 2☌ goal. We find that the negative production shock of China's containment policy propagates globally via supply chains, with the carbon-intensive sectors experiencing the greatest carbon emission shocks. This paper develops a multi-sector and multi-factor structural gravity model that allows an analytical and quantitative decomposition of the emission and output changes into composition and technique effects. 13 Anhui University, Hefei 230601, China.12 The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London WC1E 7HB, UK.
11 School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.10 Integrated Research on Energy, Environment and Society (IREES), Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen 9747 AG, the Netherlands.9 Renmin Business School, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China.8 Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.7 College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.6 Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.5 Zhejiang Institute of "Eight-Eight" Strategies, Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China.
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